IX

Foreword

III

Acknowledgements

IV

About the Human Security Centre

VI

Preface

VII

What is Human Security

VIII

Overview

1

PART I

The changing face of global violence

13

Introduction

15

Getting it wrong about war trends

17

Fewer wars, fewer deaths

22

The changing nature of warfare

34

Targeting civilians

40

Fear of war, fear of crime

47

PART II

The human security audit

61

Introduction

63

A new global dataset

66

Measuring human rights abuse

77

Tracking criminal violence

80

Human trafficking

86

Creating a human security index?

90

PART III

Assault on the vulnerable

99

Introduction

101

The plight of the displaced

103

War and sexual violence

107

Child soldiers

113

PART IV

Counting the indirect costs of war

123

Introduction

125

Beyond battle-deaths

127

Measuring the hidden costs of armed conflict

129

HIV/AIDS and conflict

135

PART V

Why the dramatic decline in armed conflict.

145

Introduction

147

The decline of international war

148

The rise and decline of civil war

150

Conclusion

155

C O N T E N T S

X

L i s t   o f   b o x e s

PART I

The changing face of global violence

Why there are no official statistics on political violence

31

WHO’s war death data and the Human Security Report

42

The arms trade, defence budgets and troop strengths

48

PART II

The human security audit

What’s new about the Uppsala/Human Security Centre dataset.

79

The myth of civilian war deaths

87

Children, drugs and violence in Rio

96

PART III

Assault on the vulnerable

Militarising refugee camps

117

Men as victims, women as warriors

122

PART IV

Counting the indirect costs of war

War and disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

146

How HIV spreads

148

L i s t   o f   f i g u r e s

PART I

The changing face of global violence

Figure 1.1

A less violent world: Numbers of conflicts, 1946–2003

35

Figure 1.2

Number of armed conflicts, 1946–2003: Global and regional breakdowns

36

Figure 1.3

The countries that have experienced the highest number of international

armed conflicts, 1946–2003

38

Figure 1.4

The most conflict-prone countries, 1946–2003

39

Figure 1.5

International crises plummet, 1946–2001

40

Figure 1.6

War becomes less deadly: Battle-deaths, 1946–2002

41

Figure 1.7

War death estimates compared

42

Figure 1.8

War death-rates by decade, 1950–1997

43

Figure 1.9

Numbers of battle-deaths, 1946–2002: Global and regional breakdowns

44

Figure 1.10

Major arms transfers, 1987–2003

48

Figure 1.11

The rise and fall of genocide and politicide, 1956–2001

53

Figure 1.12

Good news. International terrorist attacks, 1982-2003

54

Figure 1.13

Bad news: International terrorist attacks, 1982–2003

55

Figure 1.14

Casualties from international terrorism, 1982–2003

56

Figure 1.15

Regional perceptions of international security

61

Figure 1.16

Regional perceptions of national security

61

Figure 1.17

What do people fear most.

63

XI

Figure 1.18

How many people experience violence.

64

Figure 1.19

Which countries experience the most criminal violence.

64

Figure 1.20

Expectations of violence: Experiences versus reality

65

Figure 1.21

The association between fear of violence and income

66

Figure 1.22

Which issues should be the top priority for governments.

66

PART II

The human security audit

Figure 2.1

Cases of armed conflict and one-sided violence, 2002-2003

80

Figure 2.2

Number of countries experiencing political violence, 2002-2003

80

Figure 2.3

Cases of armed conflict and one-sided violence by country, 2002-2003

81

Figure 2.4

Number of reported deaths from political violence, 2002-2003

85

Figure 2.5

Number of reported deaths from political violence by country, 2002-2003 86

Figure 2.6

Political Repression 1980–2003: a net increase in four regions

90

Figure 2.7

Political repression 1980–2003: a decrease in two regions

91

Figure 2.8

World homicide rates, 1959-2001

94

Figure 2.9

World homicide rates in industrialised and developing countries, 1959-2001

94

Figure 2.10

World rape rates, 1977-2001

95

Figure 2.11

The world’s least secure countries.

104

PART III

Assault on the vulnerable

Figure 3.1

Refugees and internally displaced persons, 1964–2003

115

PART IV

Counting the indirect costs of war

Figure 4.1

Battle-deaths versus total war deaths in selected sub-Saharan

African conflicts

140

Figure 4.2

The falling cost of armed conflict

140

Figure 4.3

The long-term impacts of civil wars by disease/condition

143

Figure 4.4

Estimated HIV infection rates in the general population and the armed

forces in sub-Saharan Africa

149

Figure 4.5

HIV infection and the rise of conflict: Is there a correlation.

150

Figure 4.6

HIV infection and fatalities from political violence: Is there a correlation.

151

PART V

Why the dramatic decline in armed conflict.

Figure 5.1

Trends in international wars, 1816-2002

160

Figure 5.2

Trends in civil wars, 1816-2002

163

Figure 5.3

The rising tide of democratisation

163

Figure 5.4

The association between war and poverty

164

Figure 5.5

UN peacemaking activities, 1989-2002

165

Figure 5.6

UN peacekeeping operations, 1948-2004

166

Figure 5.7

Numbers of international tribunals and countries prosecuting grave

human rights abuses, 1970-2004

166